Uninformed Draft Analysis
It never ceases to amaze me that the NFL draft has turned into such a big media event. It’s not particularly riveting—it’s just watching rich men (or soon-to-be rich men) standing around in suits on a stage. No actual football gets played. Heck, it’s impossible to even know right away whether a particular choice is a good one or a bad one. History is full of number one overall busts and Hall of Famers from the later rounds. And yet there’s actually a 4 hour draft countdown show. Let’s just take a moment to ponder the absurdity of that. There’s a multi-hour sports analysis show that builds up to the main event—namely, many more hours of sports analysis. When we started the Uninformed Football Picks, part of the point was to highlight how random correct game forecasting can be. But nothing could be more random than trying to guess whether a particular college player is going to be a success at a particular team. And yet Mel Kiper has made a career from it. So maybe we’ll come back in a year and see how our Uninformed Draft Analysis of the top 5 picks this year stacks up against the experts’ predictions.
1. Matthew Stafford, Quarterback (Georgia), to the Detroit Lions
I’m just going to go with the odds on this one—it’s not going to go well for poor Matt. I know that he did that cool plate-breaking thing on Jimmy Fallon’s show, and were he being drafted into the National Plate Breaking League by the Detroit Lions . . . I still would predict doom. Sure, there have been cases where a number one overall quarterback has gone to an abortion of a football team, turned things around, and become a superstar. I mean, I assume that has happened at some point in time, even if I can’t think of anything off the top of my head. But you know what happens more frequently? The promising quarterback goes to the worst team in the league, gets thrown in to the mix too fast, gets pounded on, loses his confidence, and becomes a walking cautionary tale against taking a quarterback with the number one pick. But good luck anyway, Matt.
2. Jason Smith, Offensive Tackle (Baylor), to the St. Louis Rams
Could this pick be any more safe and uninteresting? Taking a lineman with your first round pick is a surefire way to get a big yawn from your fans and major criticism from the sports press. And this guy doesn’t even have a weird name to make fun of. I secretly suspect that most people don’t really understand what an Offensive Tackle even does and wouldn’t criticize the choice for fear of being found out.
3. Tyson Jackson, Defensive End (LSU), to the Kansas City Chiefs
I actually feel very good about Tyson’s future—mostly because I like the way that both his first and last names end with “son.” It has a nice symmetry to it, and makes him sound a little bit like an accounting firm. But in a good way. And I think we can all agree that having the right name is vital to one’s success as a Defensive End.
4. Aaron Curry, Outside Linebacker (Wake Forest), to the Seattle Seahawks
I was all set to dismiss Aaron, on account of the fact that I once knew a guy named Aaron who was a total douchebag. But that was before I noticed that his last name was “Curry.” Excellent. Now, I want both him and the Seahawks to do well this year so that I can work a “Spicy Curry” Dundee into my football picks next year.
5. Mark Sanchez, Quarterback (USC), to the New York Jets
This is another easy one. It’s a USC quarterback, so I’m going to fearlessly predict that he’ll make a big splash his rookie year, have everyone talking about him like he’s the second coming of Dan Marino, then slowly fade away into averageness. I know that if football analysts and coaches were excitable tween girls (and sometimes they are), then USC quarterbacks would be their Jonas Brothers. But I’m going to wait until one of the current crop of USC phenoms actually makes a huge mark on the NFL before I buy into the hype.